2024 Predictions 1.0
In this comprehensive report, we delve into detailed analyses, providing insightful predictions and strategic considerations for the financial markets in the year 2024.
INSIGHT
***This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute or intend to constitute investment advice. This article can not be seen as a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments.***
NASDAQ:
To get started, it is crucial to acknowledge the significance of the upcoming year for the United States, driven by multiple factors.
Foremost among these is the impending election year in the United States. Historically, election years have been characterized by an upward trajectory in the stock market. This phenomenon can be attributed to the incumbent party's inclination to foster a positive economic environment, aiming to project a favorable image to the electorate. Consequently, the market often experiences a heightened sense of anticipation during these periods, a "hype".
Another very important factor is based on monetary policy: the lowering of interest rates.
It seems clear that this year will be the year of change regarding monetary policy, in fact it has been speculated that rates will be lowered even in this first phase of 2024. Most of the consensus foresees that these cuts will start from summer onwards, but everything will depend on how the economic data will develop. Obviously this decision may influence the movement of the index, but what we do expect is that the rate cut will take place, perhaps later than most now expect. In the technical sphere of the analysis we can say that the all-time highs have been broken after good accumulations and corrections, therefore we expect the movement to continue its upward course. We expect deeper corrections in the long term (not concerning 2024).
Based on the above, this is a possible path of travel for the technology index in 2024.
“Possible general trend 2024”
The corrections and impulses have been drawn in these specific time periods ( major corrections in March and August, September) due to the historical seasonality of the index.
“Nasdaq 10 years seasonality”(2)
Conclusion
We expect markets rising in 2024, being the interest rates cuts the greatest market mover.
ALIBABA:
China is suffering a major crisis, and this is also reflected in the market; however, Alibaba is still a solid company in its financial data.
The crisis in the real estate sector remains the most pressing challenge for Xi Jinping as China's leader. This problem not only affects China's economy but also undermines the confidence of Chinese citizens, who have a large exposure to this sector. Moreover, local governments in China have relied for a decade on the sale of land for development projects, which now leaves them with serious financing problems. The government is likely to continue with the same strategy as in recent quarters, passing various stimulus measures and providing liquidity to counter the decline in the property market.
“Fair value data explained in resources section” (3)
On the technical side Alibaba is also looking solid, it is forming a huge accumulation on weekly charts, and also to a lesser degree on smaller charts.
Conclusion
Everything points to a good future for the stock in the coming years.
Pfizer:
“Fair value data explained in resources section” (4)
Here we can see that the fundamentals appear to be quite solid and that the company is generally undervalued.
Here instead, we can see how a relevant individual in the company is purchasing shares. A very good sign for the company's share price. (5)
On the technical side, we have recently seen a very large increase in volume if we move on the chart (stop/cap volume) from here this could be the start of a large accumulation. Therefore we expect sideways in the coming months before we can break out to the upside, hopefully before the end of this year.
Conclusion
Using all the information recently mentioned is when we take the odds in our favour and this synergy of information leads us to think that this company could be a good opportunity for this year.
(1)
Resources
(2) https://www.forecaster.biz/
(3) https://www.forecaster.biz/ , How to get fair value approximation: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dcf.asp, https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/en/peter-lynch-fair-value-calc/ , https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/eva.asp .
(4) https://www.forecaster.biz/