EUR/USD Report

Today we want to start using seasonality, cyclicality, as the basis of our analysis.

Let's see what the statistics suggest for the next two months:

Eur/usd results for the last 11 years from 9/9 to 9/30:

Eur/usd results last 14 years from 9/30 to 10/24:

During the first period of time we noticed a sadistic that suggests a fairly negative period until the end of the month. However, in the second period (October) the trend is different.

Now that we know what the seasonal statistics tell us, we are going to find out from the graph how we can take advantage of the statistics to our advantage and what scenario we consider.

Daily Graph:

The cyclicality will most likely be confirmed given that it is very possible that the price will reach the green support zone by the end of September. We must be careful with the area marked on the volume and the graph with a circle as it will not be easy to break. Bearish confirmation until the end of the month would come with the break of 1.0736 (horizontal line). In any case, we are not considering any entry until we have real opportunities (we will see in lower time frames).

Once the bearish period is over (we are not sure if it will occur), a bullish period should begin if we see the arrival of the price to the relevant area or/and accumulation of the price that could trigger prices upwards as seasonality suggests. The macroeconomic context also makes possible a revaluation of the euro against the dollar.

Hourly Graph:

We will consider bearish entries if the price reaches one of the resistance zones in red and we see a large rejection, signs of a change in trend or a favorable scenario, which would mean taking liquidity, to open bearish positions that would be quite speculative, so we suggest having a good risk:reward ratio and try to adjust the entry as much as possible.

Final comment:

We hope to find a bullish scenario that could begin at the beginning of October and that can last until the end of the year. During this month we can look for a speculative short if the price reaches and rejects the areas evidenced in the hourly graph. We have in our favor the cyclicality for both scenarios and the macroeconomic context, especially for the medium/long-term bullish position.